Kalshi

Market position

Kalshi describes itself as the world's largest prediction market, claiming over 90% of U.S. prediction market activity and the majority of global volume as of May 2026, and is described by CNBC as the largest prediction markets trading business in the U.S. Its move into perpetual futures brings it into competition with established derivatives exchanges such as CME Group; Polymarket is referenced in one source as another prediction market. The traditional gaming industry, represented by the American Gaming Association, is actively opposing prediction markets.

The principal stated differentiator is federal regulation: Kalshi is registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market and presents itself as the first legal U.S. futures exchange for a broad category of event outcomes, a status it uses to argue that its contracts are swaps subject to exclusive federal oversight rather than state gambling law. Breadth of markets (over 3,500 across 13 categories) and the argued accuracy of its pricing are also cited; Semafor noted a high degree of precision for economic and financial markets from 2021 to mid-2026, and a February 2026 Federal Reserve study found the platform useful for measuring macroeconomic expectations, while political scientist John M. Sides has questioned how efficiently it aggregates information.

Technology

The core technology is an electronic exchange and matching platform for binary event contracts whose prices express implied probabilities, operated within CFTC designated contract market rules. Additional capabilities described include block trading, brokerage API integrations powering third-party front ends such as Robinhood's Prediction Markets Hub, and perpetual futures products.

Go-to-market

Distribution combines a direct consumer app, brokerage integrations, and media partnerships with CNN, CNBC and Fox News that surface Kalshi odds in news and sports broadcast contexts. Marketing has included a generative-AI-produced advertisement aired during the 2025 NBA Finals and campus-focused promotion. Stated uses of the 2025 and 2026 funding rounds include accelerating consumer adoption, integrating more brokerages, striking news partnerships, broadening the product suite and scaling institutional adoption.

Retail traders in the United States, described by Kalshi as "millions" of weekly users, alongside a growing institutional base of hedge funds, asset managers, proprietary trading firms and insurance companies. Kalshi has also marketed to college students, including a withdrawn "student ambassadors" program. Its data is cited by reporters, politicians, pundits and Wall Street participants.

Geography

Headquarters at 594 Broadway, New York, NY, with the company originally established in San Francisco. Job listings are based in New York City with some remote (U.S.) roles. Operations are focused on the U.S. market under CFTC regulation, though Kalshi claims the majority of global prediction market volume; a Netflix documentary trailer referenced World Cup bets placed in Nevada.

History

After years of regulatory work, Kalshi received a CFTC designated contract market license in November 2020 and publicly launched in July 2021. From 2022 its efforts to list political and election contracts drew sustained opposition from the CFTC, which questioned whether the contracts were valid hedging tools and served the public interest; Commissioner Caroline Pham dissented, and Chairman Rostin Behnam warned election contracts could degrade electoral integrity. The CFTC rejected Kalshi's congressional control contracts in September 2023 and Kalshi sued, winning a 2024 DC District Court ruling that the agency had overstepped, followed by an appellate court's refusal to stay the ruling, which allowed the markets to relaunch. Growth accelerated thereafter: Robinhood's Prediction Markets Hub was built on Kalshi infrastructure in 2025, media partnerships with CNN and CNBC followed in 2025 and Fox News in 2026, and the company raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation in December 2025 and another $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May 2026.

Risks & controversies

Kalshi faces concentrated legal and regulatory risk. New York's July 2026 lawsuit alleges it runs an unregistered gambling business and seeks a permanent injunction, restitution, per-violation penalties and treble gains estimated at up to $36 billion; a federal judge in the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi's requests for injunctive relief against the state Gaming Commission. Forty-four state attorneys general wrote to the CFTC contesting federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts, and the American Gaming Association supports state enforcement. Other issues raised in sources include election-integrity concerns that led the U.S. Senate to bar senators and staff from betting on prediction markets in May 2026, allegations of insider trading involving politicians, backlash over contracts tied to Iran and U.S. military actions, ethical criticism of marketing to college students via a since-withdrawn ambassadors program, the disclosure that 2.9 users lose money for every one who profits, questions about leverage and retail investor protection in its new perpetual futures, and a dispute with Netflix over a documentary trailer. Revenue concentration in sports (89% in 2025) heightens exposure to adverse rulings on sports event contracts.