Alkimiya

Alkimiya is a decentralized market protocol that turns fundamental economic metrics into tradable markets. According to its documentation, users can trade and build strategies around metrics including blockspace demand, onchain revenue, stablecoin flows and macroeconomic indicators, which the company characterizes as observable, actionable and predictive signals rather than price speculation. Its flagship product, Forecast, is described as an event-driven prediction market on ecosystem fundamentals with continuous (non-binary) payoffs that scale with forecast accuracy, and with built-in caps and floors that bound risk. Markets referenced in the documentation include a USDC stablecoin metric market tracking weekly total USDC supply and a Base revenue market tracking total gas spent [0][1].

The protocol's core market logic is organized around Pools, defined as the set of all buy and sell positions within the same period. During a pool period users can enter the market and trade, place limit orders, view onchain events affecting the underlying fundamental, and check active positions. Onchain events, submitted by whitelisted projects and the community and vetted by Alkimiya, are surfaced as drivers of volatility in the fundamental. Each pool also carries charts showing pool-to-pool movement of the fundamental and hourly, daily and weekly movement [1].

An earlier generation of the protocol targeted blockspace producers. Press coverage from January 2023 described Alkimiya as building 'decentralized capital markets for blockspace,' providing hedging tools for miners and staking validators to lock in upfront fixed revenue for future production, with DeFi depositors gaining exposure to a portion of mining and staking rewards. Among its products was Silica, described as a swap between an upfront payment made by the buyer and the mining rewards produced by a specified amount of hashpower over a contract period [2][3]."]

Founding story

Alkimiya was founded by Ricardo Grobel, previously an engineer at Itaú Unibanco, and Leo Zhang, previously at Morgan Stanley. Zhang framed the company's origin around the observation that blockspace producers such as miners and validators resemble traditional commodity producers, bearing production costs for a volatile output, but lack the futures and options instruments that oil or gold companies use to hedge production risk [2].

Business model

Alkimiya operates an onchain protocol rather than a service business. In its earlier blockspace-hedging design, the protocol derived revenue from allowing depositors to receive a portion of the mining and staking rewards generated by blockspace producers, who in exchange received upfront fixed payments for future production [3]. Current documentation centers on the Forecast product, where users trade positions in pools tracking fundamental metrics via the company's dapp [0][1].

Sources do not describe current protocol fees. In the earlier blockspace design, the protocol's revenue came from routing to depositors a portion of the rewards generated by mining and staking participants [3].

Traction

Public sources do not disclose user, volume or revenue figures. Documentation lists live markets including USDC weekly total supply and a Base revenue market, and states the protocol launched in August 2024 [0][1].

Latest developments

Company documentation, last updated approximately 11 months before retrieval, presents Forecast as the flagship product with tradable markets on fundamentals including USDC total supply and Base revenue, and states the protocol launched in August 2024 with backing from Dragonfly, Castle Island Ventures, 1KX, Coinbase Ventures, Circle Ventures, Tribe Capital, Mirana, GMR and Robot Ventures [0]."]}